Every date is a probability.
Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis that tells you how likely your finish date really is, which risks drive it, and how much time and contingency to hold before you promise anything to a lender or a board.
Why a single date misleads.
One date, many futures
A CPM schedule prints one finish. Reality is a range of outcomes, and the printed date is often near the optimistic end of it.
Merge points eat confidence
When three near-critical paths join at one milestone, the odds of hitting it drop sharply. A deterministic schedule cannot show you that.
Contingency by guesswork
Without a model, schedule and cost contingency become round numbers that either run out in year one or sit unused while you overpay.
How we model risk.
- 01
Fix the logic first
A risk model is only as honest as the schedule under it. We run a health check and repair open ends and hard constraints before any simulation.
- 02
Ranges from the people who know
Short, structured interviews with superintendents, engineers and designers. They set the optimistic, likely and pessimistic durations, not a software default.
- 03
Risks as events, not padding
A late transformer, a failed inspection or a wet spring is mapped to the activities it would hit, with likelihood and impact.
- 04
Thousands of futures
We simulate the schedule thousands of times to produce P50, P80 and P90 dates and costs for every key milestone.
- 05
Rank what to fix
Tornado and sensitivity results show which risks move the date most, so mitigation money goes where it buys the most days.
What you get.
Scoped to your project and delivered in native files your team owns.
P50, P80 and P90 dates for each key milestone, and the plain-English odds of meeting your current target.
A cost range and recommended contingency at the confidence level you choose, tied to named risks.
The short list of risks and activities that cause most of the uncertainty, ranked by their effect on the finish.
Specific actions with owners and dates, and the before and after effect each one has on the P80 date.
The risk-loaded schedule and every input, so your team can rerun the analysis as the project moves.
The target was a coin flip.
A familiar moment: financing closes next month and the lender asks for a completion date. The schedule says one thing; the model says that date has roughly even odds. We show which three risks drive the spread, what it costs to buy them down, and the P80 date worth putting in the agreement.
- P50
- The date you manage to
- P80
- The date you commit to
- 1,000s
- Simulated futures per run
See it in the work.
Confidential projects where these controls apply, and a live instrument you can run on the shared Controls Lab schedule.
Questions owners ask us.
What does P80 mean?
It is the date you have an 80 percent chance of meeting or beating, based on the model. Many owners and lenders commit to P80 and manage the team to P50.
When should we run a risk analysis?
Before you commit a date or a budget: at baseline, before a GMP, before financing and at major decisions. Run it again after any large change.
Can you analyze cost and schedule together?
Yes. An integrated model shows how delay drives cost, which gives a more honest contingency than two separate studies.
Can we try it before we call?
Open Finish-Date Confidence in our Controls Lab. It runs thousands of futures of a sample schedule and shows the P80 date move as you change the risk.
Related services
Before you promise the date, price the risk.
Share the project, the latest schedule and the date that matters. A senior project controls lead replies within one business day.